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This tag is associated with 170 posts

Cadence Column: Asia, November 26, 2018


Taiwan held something akin to a “mid-term” election this past Saturday. The people revolted against the previous revolt. When electing the DPP two years ago, the people were fed up with the capitulation policies of Ma. Now, they are fed up with bad management of infrastructure, also an “establishment culture” surfacing in what should be … Continue reading

Cadence Column: Asia, October 8, 2018


China’s political, socioeconomic worldview is that of a zero-sum game. It has played its socioeconomic game that way for decades. Now, it must empty its reserve coffers to keep its zero-sum game strategy from sinking too fast. This means that it can’t use those coffers if a military conflict arose. The United States knows this. … Continue reading

Cadence Column: Asia, July 30, 2018


The “China miracle” was nothing more than smoke and mirrors as big companies of the West took advantage of Chinese people seeking a living and Western consumers seeking lower prices. Everyone lost. There was no “miracle”. The fad for cutting costs and quick investment returns nickeled and dimed away quality, eventually pushing bean counters to … Continue reading

Cadence Column: Asia, July 23, 2018


Central planning has only so much room for slight of hand tricks to keep up its sleeve. When the going gets tough, everyone goes home. For China, that means devaluing its currency, a complaint Trump has long lobbed against the trade giant. Maintaining good relations with Apple and almost achieving the manufacturing capability long held … Continue reading

Cadence Column: Asia, June 18, 2018


Trump has stopped military exercises near North Korea, but he has not initiated any plans to withdraw troops. His reason for stopping the exercises is that they are provocative and expensive. He has a point: If the heads of state are talking then we are less in need of fighting practice in a scenario where … Continue reading

Cadence Column: Asia, April 16, 2018


The war with China is becoming the war with Russia and China, it’s economic, it’s culminating, and Britain is double-involved. Since the strike on Syria, Russia is angry and thumping the drums. They promised retaliation before. After, they really promised really retaliation next time. It almost seems that Trump is testing Russian and Chinese leadership—and … Continue reading

Cadence Column: Asia, January 15, 2018


Jeffery Lewis at the Daily Beast has finally found a solution to the problem with North Korea: Kim Jong Un’s port-a-potty. By bombing the dynastic successor’s port-a-potty, the US would demonstrate both precision and presence. This would be the proverbial “arrow” from Robin Hood, conveniently shooting its way into the Sheriff’s chamber. Though the “papers” … Continue reading

Cadence Column: Asia, September 18, 2017


China’s situation is growing more and more similar to North Korea’s. They seek to “match” the US in military strength, but aim to do so without US economics. Without the economics it will be hard to match anything. Slowly, but surely, the US is chipping away at money going into China. Stocks were up in … Continue reading

Cadence Column: Asia, April 24, 2017


All eyes on Korea means all eyes on China, which means all eyes on Trump. What’s at stake?—not nuclear war, not regional war, not freedom for northern Koreans, but a trade deal with China. At least, that’s the story if you ask the money channels. China is a “gold mine for innovation”, the hope for … Continue reading

Cadence Column: Asia, February 27, 2017


Americans love flags. The over-sized flag, the “Star Spangled Banner”, was a strategic tool of Fort McHenry at the Battle of Baltimore and the US national anthem itself is named after the flag. If the United States ever truly intended to communicate that it believes Beijing seats the rightful government over the island of Taiwan, … Continue reading

China to ban foreign companies from online media business


The ruling Chinese Communist Party has announced new regulations that will ban foreign companies from publishing online media, games and other “creative” content within China’s borders from next month. The “Regulations for the management of online publishing services” also ban foreign-invested joint ventures from engaging in online content provision, according to a copy of the … Continue reading

The truth behind China’s exchange rate delusion


The current bout of anxiety is a symptom of the fact that China’s transition from an export-led growth strategy is proceeding far less smoothly than hoped China’s management of its exchange rate peg continues to rattle global financial markets. Uncertainty about renminbi devaluation is fuelling fears that deflationary forces will sweep through emerging markets and … Continue reading

The currency dictatorship and China’s action plan


The last time a country decided to dump the dollar in the oil business, the US destroyed it. Now India, the world’s third largest economy, and Iran have agreed to settle their outstanding oil dues in rupees. What’s more, the two countries may conduct all future trade in their national currencies. This follows an agreement … Continue reading

Ghost cities show China crisis, but is the Chinese furniture market still interesting?


Yujiapu is one of the most impressive ghost cities in China. An almost empty agglomerate of half-finished buildings and skyscrapers modelled on Manhattan’s skyline. Many say it’s one of the most scary landmark of China’s failed ambitions: a ghost city that was once supposed to become a world financial centre. Many others say it’s an … Continue reading

China threatens sanctions against U.S. companies


China’s recent threat to impose sanctions on U.S. defence companies that sell arms to Taiwan should come as no surprise to American officials or corporate executives: Washington has been issuing sanctions of these sorts for years. It was only a matter of time before U.S. competitors started copying its tactics. Regardless of whether China follows … Continue reading

China halts stock trading after 7% rout triggers circuit breaker


The worst-ever start to a year for Chinese shares triggered a trading halt in more than $7 trillion of equities, futures and options, putting the nation’s new market circuit breakers to the test on their first day. Trading was halted at about 1:34 p.m. local time on Monday after the CSI 300 Index dropped 7 … Continue reading

Cool War: United States and China in the future of the global competition


Are we on the edge of a new Cold War era? Or, alternatively, every power struggle mindset has to be considered a lost legacy of the XX century and we’re headed to a new era of global cooperation? These are the big questions opening Cool War by Noah Feldman, a must read essay on the … Continue reading

China pledges $60 billion in funding support to Africa


Chinese President Xi Jinping announced Friday that the country will pledge a new round of funding support to Africa‘s development, worth $60 billion. Analysts had wondered if the pace of Chinese investment in Africa would slow, particularly in infrastructure projects, because of the slowing growth of the Chinese economy. The announcement, however, seems to indicate … Continue reading

Understanding the two Chinas


Our view that China may be heading for a mild cyclical upswing next year needs to be set against the background of the broader economy, which is changing rapidly. We think that it makes sense to view the economy as consisting of two parts: old and new. In its latest Five-Year Plan—full details of which … Continue reading

China has a $1.2 trillion Ponzi finance problem


Chinese borrowers are taking on record amounts of debt to repay interest on their existing obligations, raising the risk of defaults and adding pressure on policy makers to keep financing costs low. The amount of loans, bonds and shadow finance arranged to cover interest payments will probably rise 5 percent this year to a record … Continue reading

Can China’s consumers save the world economy?


Long the place that makes stuff and doesn’t consume much, China is set to redress the balance. And thus, some say, rescue the troubled global economy. But it’s a stretch to think that Beijing’s plan — shifting the export-driven country from emphasizing manufacturing and infrastructure to relying on public consumption – will spread sweet prosperity … Continue reading

China keen to promote its idea for Asia-Pacific trade pact at Apec in Manila


Beijing will report back on a study for Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific just days after the release of details of a US-led agreement China will seek to push its own vision of an Asia-Pacific trade pact at a regional summit next week, senior officials said yesterday, just weeks after the release of a … Continue reading

The one thing holding back China’s yuan


While China may be the world’s second largest economy, the future of the yuan playing a bigger role in international markets is clouded by politics. Earlier this fall, the IMF postponed a scheduled update of the designated basket of reserve currencies, a basket that is used by member countries for Special Drawing Rights (SDR). Though … Continue reading

China’s economy is worse than you think


The unreliability of Chinese official economic data has become almost a cliche. A few years before he became China’s premier, Li Keqiang said that the country’s numbers were “man-made” and “for reference only.” If the top economic policy maker of a country says that the numbers aren’t reliable … well, you believe him But how unreliable? … Continue reading

What could really disrupt China’s economy?


In an earlier post, I explained why I’m still bullish on China’s economy. But as the events of the past few months have shown, the risks of economic disruption are real. Here are several potential risks that could throw China’s economy off track. While the likelihood of all of them occurring is low, they are … Continue reading

A massive Chinese industry is flashing warning signs that the world cannot ignore


China’s steel industry, the world’s biggest, is in crisis. The disaster is the result of a combination of factors, including a slowing Chinese economy, falling commodity prices, and an industry loaded with debt. Earlier this month, state-owned enterprise (SOE) Sinosteel defaulted on a debt-interest payment of $315 million on bond notes maturing in 2017. It’s … Continue reading

10 things the Communist Party wants you to believe about China’s next five-year plan


The Chinese newspaper that serves as the ruling Communist Party’s mouthpiece has outlined 10 objectives that are expected to lead to breakthroughs on the mainland in the next five years. The targets were revealed on thePeople’s Daily’s Weibo account as the party’s fifth plenum, which will review the nation’s next five-year plan for 2016-20, gets … Continue reading

China says it should join TPP, even though it wasn’t invited


China should join at an appropriate time the U.S.-backed regional trade accord the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) as its broad aims are in line with China’s own economic reform agenda, an influential Communist Party newspaper said on Sunday. China is not among the 12 Pacific Rim countries who earlier this month agreed the trade pact, the … Continue reading

As old China slows, new China remains closed to foreign firms: ‘The worst time for multinationals’


As China’s old economy slumps, service industries from banking to telecommunications are poised to take up the slack. The catch for American and other foreign firms: They’re locked out of these new growth drivers. Overseas banks and life insurers have both seen their markets shares slip over the past decade, to 1.7 per cent and … Continue reading

For Hollywood, the road to China is littered with broken deals – the perils of doing business with China


Hollywood talent agent Jeff Berg flew to Shanghai last summer to celebrate one of his biggest deals — a partnership with Chinese investors in Resolution, his new agency in Century City. Two hundred business executives, government officials, actors and journalists gathered at the swank Hotel Shangri-La to mark the occasion. Celebrities posed for photographs. Guests … Continue reading

Nerves on edge as Chinese authorities probe market mayhem


The head of hedge fund manager Man Group Plc’s (EMG.L) China business has been taken into custody to help authorities in a probe into recent market volatility, Bloomberg reported on Monday, while separately a local financial reporter confessed on national TV to having spread false information that caused “panic and disorder”. Both are likely to … Continue reading

China’s meltdown shows the country is out of control


The world’s second-largest economy may be able to stem a financial crisis, but don’t count on it to stimulate the world’s economy. Global stock markets have rebounded after the shock of Black Monday, but worries over the Chinese economy are not over, in fact they are just beginning. The People’s Bank of China’s move on … Continue reading

China wants great power without great responsibility


Forty-three years after Richard Nixon made his famous visit to China, that country has seemingly decided to take a page from the former U.S. president’s Treasury Department. As China lowers the value of the yuan, the country’s economic policy makers are mimicking the blasé attitude of Nixon-era Treasury chief John Connally, who dismissed international complaints … Continue reading

Chinese companies face culture shock in countries that aren’t like China


Faced with slower growth at home and rising labour costs, Chinese entrepreneurs are seeking foreign markets as never before. But as they rush abroad, they are grappling for the first time with unruly trade unions, independent courts and meddlesome journalists. And for many, navigating the unfamiliar waters of multiparty politics and confronting the power of … Continue reading

China’s massive economic advantage over the world is about to disappear


We have finally arrived at a point in history that economists have been dreading for years: The moment when the total number of Chinese workers goes into decline for the first time in decades. Since way before the 1990s, China has had one huge economic advantage over the rest of the world: Year after year, … Continue reading

Why China is not a global superpower


What do the fluctuations in China’s capital market mean for the global economy? As can be seen in the recent stock market slide, capital markets outside of China were impacted, but quickly rebounded. Make no mistake, whatever happens in China certainly ripples across the globe, but until such time as Chinese president Xi Jinping can … Continue reading

Chinese SOE chairman says China has won the stock market war against western financial giants


The following is based on a translation of an article in Chinese media: China’s official mouthpiece the Global Times published an article by Lin Zuoming, Chairman of the Board of Directors of China’s State-owned giant Aviation Industry Corporation of China (AVIC), on the recent disturbance in China’s stock market. The head of any large state-owned … Continue reading

International investors are pulling out of China in favour of India because of China’s interference in stock market


The tumult in China’s stock markets has turned into a blessing for Indian shareholders. International investors are pulling out of China, fuelling record outflows through the Shanghai-Hong Kong exchange link, amid a $2.8 trillion plunge in mainland equity values since June 12. They’ve ploughed $705 million into India over the same period, sparking a world-beating … Continue reading

The danger from China’s coming recession


China is going to have a recession. Not necessarily this year or next year, but it will. That’s just how economies work. How the Chinese government deals with its first capitalist recession is the great, dangerous unknown in world politics and economics. The frantic efforts China made to stop the recent stock market fall do … Continue reading

Cadence of Conflict: Asia, July 13, 2015


With China’s economy failing, the Chinese KMT-Nationalist party living in exile at Taiwan may have made a mistake in trying to merge the fates of the New Taiwan Dollar with the Chinese Yuan. Election time in Taiwan could mean a political “pay day”. China is in financial crisis. Weapon sales from the US to Taiwan … Continue reading

India to beat China again as fastest-growing economy in 2016 says IMF


India will be the world’s fastest growing economy for the second consecutive year in 2016 at 7.5 per cent, IMF today said, even as it lowered its current year global economy growth forecast to 3.3 per cent. In its World Economic Outlook Update released here, IMF retained India’s growth projection for current year at 7.5 … Continue reading

China not fit for global leadership


Australia’s top public servant has dismissed any prospect of China leading the world, saying the economic giant is neither willing nor able to solve global problems. Michael Thawley, secretary of the Department of Prime Minister and Cabinet, said China had shown itself to be more interested in challenging the existing order than building a better one. … Continue reading

Western companies are being forced to figure China out all over again as sales plummet


Foreign companies have long known that China’s economic slowdown—now upon us—could hit their earnings hard. They just didn’t expect they’d be hit by changing consumer buying habits and a rise in Chinese competitors at the same time. Suddenly, foreign brands are finding it a lot harder to convince consumers in the world’s most populous country … Continue reading

3 helpful tips for dealing with vexing Chinese negotiating tactics


As a film producer and consultant who works extensively in China, I am often confronted with the vexing challenge of making deals with savvy Chinese negotiators. I have found the advice offered by Steven Dickinson, an attorney with the Seattle-based law firm Harris Moure, to be extremely helpful in confronting the business negotiating tactics that … Continue reading

China’s new silk road could change global economics forever


Beginning with the marvellous tales of Marco Polo’s travels across Eurasia to China, the Silk Road has never ceased to entrance the world. Now, the ancient cities of Samarkand, Baku, Tashkent, and Bukhara are once again firing the world’s imagination. China is building the world’s greatest economic development and construction project ever undertaken: The New … Continue reading

Outdated mindset is blocking China’s new ideas, say analysts


A leading mainland Chinese inventor-entrepreneur says he may not have surrendered his professorship at an elite university if government policy at the time had allowed him to set up his company while still staying in his post. “If there had been an option, I would have definitely considered it,” Zhong Faping – one of the best-known … Continue reading

Why western companies fail in China


Many western companies try to expand their business to China’s nearly 700 million internet users. Some companies succeed and get tremendously rewarded, but many more fail. I previously wrote an article about what, as I see it, Chinese startups should change to perform better in Western markets. In this article, I will show the other … Continue reading

This is how China is trying to save its economy


China has had 35 years of hypergrowth, but now it’s over. It’s going to have to settle for really, really good growth instead. But that’s still going to be hard now that fewer Chinese are working-age, fewer people are moving to the cities and, most of all, now that China has a debt bubble it’s … Continue reading

Putting China’s debt into perspective


China’s total debt quadrupled between 2007 and 2014, which was about one-third of the $57 trillion in debt added globally during that period. Can this possibly be safe? To answer this question, the McKinsey Global Institute devotes an entire chapter to China’s debt in the new report Debt and (not much) deleveraging. The key issue … Continue reading

Chinese media says India’s economy will surpass China’s


The following is based on a translation from Chinese media: Mil.huanqiu.com says in its report today that according to Indian publication The Hindu’s report on April 29, India is expected to achieve a growth rate of 8%, faster than China. If it conducts further reform and achieves steady faster growth rate, it will certainly surpass … Continue reading

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