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Finance & Economy

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Could Hong Kong, after a merger with Shenzhen, help China’s One Belt One Road thrive?


According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) June 2016 research report “Neoliberalism: Oversold?” which was described as “a political bombshell … that caused a near-panic among advocates of free market policies” by the Foreign Policy analyst Rick Rowden [Note 1] , what ‘capital account liberalisation’ brings to developing countries is “the pervasiveness of booms and … Continue reading

Manila-Beijing relations to determine ASEAN growth


As the two possible ‘Joint Development Areas’ — “off Triton Island in the Paracels” and “Reed Bank off Philippine Palawan” [Note 1] — have almost been out of the minds of both the analysts and general public of the Philippines, a failure to revive the Manila–Beijing relation after the May 9 presidential election would jeopardize … Continue reading

China to ban foreign companies from online media business


The ruling Chinese Communist Party has announced new regulations that will ban foreign companies from publishing online media, games and other “creative” content within China’s borders from next month. The “Regulations for the management of online publishing services” also ban foreign-invested joint ventures from engaging in online content provision, according to a copy of the … Continue reading

The truth behind China’s exchange rate delusion


The current bout of anxiety is a symptom of the fact that China’s transition from an export-led growth strategy is proceeding far less smoothly than hoped China’s management of its exchange rate peg continues to rattle global financial markets. Uncertainty about renminbi devaluation is fuelling fears that deflationary forces will sweep through emerging markets and … Continue reading

The currency dictatorship and China’s action plan


The last time a country decided to dump the dollar in the oil business, the US destroyed it. Now India, the world’s third largest economy, and Iran have agreed to settle their outstanding oil dues in rupees. What’s more, the two countries may conduct all future trade in their national currencies. This follows an agreement … Continue reading

Ghost cities show China crisis, but is the Chinese furniture market still interesting?


Yujiapu is one of the most impressive ghost cities in China. An almost empty agglomerate of half-finished buildings and skyscrapers modelled on Manhattan’s skyline. Many say it’s one of the most scary landmark of China’s failed ambitions: a ghost city that was once supposed to become a world financial centre. Many others say it’s an … Continue reading

China threatens sanctions against U.S. companies


China’s recent threat to impose sanctions on U.S. defence companies that sell arms to Taiwan should come as no surprise to American officials or corporate executives: Washington has been issuing sanctions of these sorts for years. It was only a matter of time before U.S. competitors started copying its tactics. Regardless of whether China follows … Continue reading

China halts stock trading after 7% rout triggers circuit breaker


The worst-ever start to a year for Chinese shares triggered a trading halt in more than $7 trillion of equities, futures and options, putting the nation’s new market circuit breakers to the test on their first day. Trading was halted at about 1:34 p.m. local time on Monday after the CSI 300 Index dropped 7 … Continue reading

Cool War: United States and China in the future of the global competition


Are we on the edge of a new Cold War era? Or, alternatively, every power struggle mindset has to be considered a lost legacy of the XX century and we’re headed to a new era of global cooperation? These are the big questions opening Cool War by Noah Feldman, a must read essay on the … Continue reading

Understanding the two Chinas


Our view that China may be heading for a mild cyclical upswing next year needs to be set against the background of the broader economy, which is changing rapidly. We think that it makes sense to view the economy as consisting of two parts: old and new. In its latest Five-Year Plan—full details of which … Continue reading

China has a $1.2 trillion Ponzi finance problem


Chinese borrowers are taking on record amounts of debt to repay interest on their existing obligations, raising the risk of defaults and adding pressure on policy makers to keep financing costs low. The amount of loans, bonds and shadow finance arranged to cover interest payments will probably rise 5 percent this year to a record … Continue reading

Can China’s consumers save the world economy?


Long the place that makes stuff and doesn’t consume much, China is set to redress the balance. And thus, some say, rescue the troubled global economy. But it’s a stretch to think that Beijing’s plan — shifting the export-driven country from emphasizing manufacturing and infrastructure to relying on public consumption – will spread sweet prosperity … Continue reading

The one thing holding back China’s yuan


While China may be the world’s second largest economy, the future of the yuan playing a bigger role in international markets is clouded by politics. Earlier this fall, the IMF postponed a scheduled update of the designated basket of reserve currencies, a basket that is used by member countries for Special Drawing Rights (SDR). Though … Continue reading

China’s economy is worse than you think


The unreliability of Chinese official economic data has become almost a cliche. A few years before he became China’s premier, Li Keqiang said that the country’s numbers were “man-made” and “for reference only.” If the top economic policy maker of a country says that the numbers aren’t reliable … well, you believe him But how unreliable? … Continue reading

What could really disrupt China’s economy?


In an earlier post, I explained why I’m still bullish on China’s economy. But as the events of the past few months have shown, the risks of economic disruption are real. Here are several potential risks that could throw China’s economy off track. While the likelihood of all of them occurring is low, they are … Continue reading

10 things the Communist Party wants you to believe about China’s next five-year plan


The Chinese newspaper that serves as the ruling Communist Party’s mouthpiece has outlined 10 objectives that are expected to lead to breakthroughs on the mainland in the next five years. The targets were revealed on thePeople’s Daily’s Weibo account as the party’s fifth plenum, which will review the nation’s next five-year plan for 2016-20, gets … Continue reading

Doing a business event in the Gobi Desert


It is something in China, about which very little is known in Europe – the business meeting, which builds relationships impossible to break. Often, though, it is also impossible to form, and must be made in a different way, which I will try to explain here. I had the pleasure to get to know Kuba Zwoliński, … Continue reading

Nerves on edge as Chinese authorities probe market mayhem


The head of hedge fund manager Man Group Plc’s (EMG.L) China business has been taken into custody to help authorities in a probe into recent market volatility, Bloomberg reported on Monday, while separately a local financial reporter confessed on national TV to having spread false information that caused “panic and disorder”. Both are likely to … Continue reading

China’s meltdown shows the country is out of control


The world’s second-largest economy may be able to stem a financial crisis, but don’t count on it to stimulate the world’s economy. Global stock markets have rebounded after the shock of Black Monday, but worries over the Chinese economy are not over, in fact they are just beginning. The People’s Bank of China’s move on … Continue reading

China wants great power without great responsibility


Forty-three years after Richard Nixon made his famous visit to China, that country has seemingly decided to take a page from the former U.S. president’s Treasury Department. As China lowers the value of the yuan, the country’s economic policy makers are mimicking the blasé attitude of Nixon-era Treasury chief John Connally, who dismissed international complaints … Continue reading

China’s massive economic advantage over the world is about to disappear


We have finally arrived at a point in history that economists have been dreading for years: The moment when the total number of Chinese workers goes into decline for the first time in decades. Since way before the 1990s, China has had one huge economic advantage over the rest of the world: Year after year, … Continue reading

Chinese SOE chairman says China has won the stock market war against western financial giants


The following is based on a translation of an article in Chinese media: China’s official mouthpiece the Global Times published an article by Lin Zuoming, Chairman of the Board of Directors of China’s State-owned giant Aviation Industry Corporation of China (AVIC), on the recent disturbance in China’s stock market. The head of any large state-owned … Continue reading

International investors are pulling out of China in favour of India because of China’s interference in stock market


The tumult in China’s stock markets has turned into a blessing for Indian shareholders. International investors are pulling out of China, fuelling record outflows through the Shanghai-Hong Kong exchange link, amid a $2.8 trillion plunge in mainland equity values since June 12. They’ve ploughed $705 million into India over the same period, sparking a world-beating … Continue reading

The danger from China’s coming recession


China is going to have a recession. Not necessarily this year or next year, but it will. That’s just how economies work. How the Chinese government deals with its first capitalist recession is the great, dangerous unknown in world politics and economics. The frantic efforts China made to stop the recent stock market fall do … Continue reading

India to beat China again as fastest-growing economy in 2016 says IMF


India will be the world’s fastest growing economy for the second consecutive year in 2016 at 7.5 per cent, IMF today said, even as it lowered its current year global economy growth forecast to 3.3 per cent. In its World Economic Outlook Update released here, IMF retained India’s growth projection for current year at 7.5 … Continue reading

China not fit for global leadership


Australia’s top public servant has dismissed any prospect of China leading the world, saying the economic giant is neither willing nor able to solve global problems. Michael Thawley, secretary of the Department of Prime Minister and Cabinet, said China had shown itself to be more interested in challenging the existing order than building a better one. … Continue reading

Western companies are being forced to figure China out all over again as sales plummet


Foreign companies have long known that China’s economic slowdown—now upon us—could hit their earnings hard. They just didn’t expect they’d be hit by changing consumer buying habits and a rise in Chinese competitors at the same time. Suddenly, foreign brands are finding it a lot harder to convince consumers in the world’s most populous country … Continue reading

The Iran scam worsens: the North Korea – China connection


It is likely that the P5+1 nuke “deal” with Iran will be approved soon. Military and other nuke sites which Iran has not “disclosed” will not be inspected. Nor will Iran’s nuke ties with North Korea — which P5+1 member China seems to be helping, Iran’s massive support for terrorism and abysmal human rights record be considered because they are also deemed … Continue reading

3 helpful tips for dealing with vexing Chinese negotiating tactics


As a film producer and consultant who works extensively in China, I am often confronted with the vexing challenge of making deals with savvy Chinese negotiators. I have found the advice offered by Steven Dickinson, an attorney with the Seattle-based law firm Harris Moure, to be extremely helpful in confronting the business negotiating tactics that … Continue reading

China’s new silk road could change global economics forever


Beginning with the marvellous tales of Marco Polo’s travels across Eurasia to China, the Silk Road has never ceased to entrance the world. Now, the ancient cities of Samarkand, Baku, Tashkent, and Bukhara are once again firing the world’s imagination. China is building the world’s greatest economic development and construction project ever undertaken: The New … Continue reading

Outdated mindset is blocking China’s new ideas, say analysts


A leading mainland Chinese inventor-entrepreneur says he may not have surrendered his professorship at an elite university if government policy at the time had allowed him to set up his company while still staying in his post. “If there had been an option, I would have definitely considered it,” Zhong Faping – one of the best-known … Continue reading

This is how China is trying to save its economy


China has had 35 years of hypergrowth, but now it’s over. It’s going to have to settle for really, really good growth instead. But that’s still going to be hard now that fewer Chinese are working-age, fewer people are moving to the cities and, most of all, now that China has a debt bubble it’s … Continue reading

Putting China’s debt into perspective


China’s total debt quadrupled between 2007 and 2014, which was about one-third of the $57 trillion in debt added globally during that period. Can this possibly be safe? To answer this question, the McKinsey Global Institute devotes an entire chapter to China’s debt in the new report Debt and (not much) deleveraging. The key issue … Continue reading

Chinese media says India’s economy will surpass China’s


The following is based on a translation from Chinese media: Mil.huanqiu.com says in its report today that according to Indian publication The Hindu’s report on April 29, India is expected to achieve a growth rate of 8%, faster than China. If it conducts further reform and achieves steady faster growth rate, it will certainly surpass … Continue reading

Chinese state-owned company, in a first, defaults on its domestic bonds


For decades, regardless of weaknesses or inefficiencies, an overriding certainty of state-backed capitalism in China has been that the government looks after its own. That may be changing. On Tuesday, a little-known power equipment manufacturer became the first state-owned company to default in China’s huge domestic bond market, throwing doubt on the long-held notion that … Continue reading

The Domino Theory: Asia’s growing China problem


Asia has a China problem. Beijing has just initiated its biggest cut in bank reserve requirements since 2008, a move that underscores just how worried it is about its economy. But the cut is also a stark wake-up call for neighbours that have gotten used to riding China’s boom. For years, China’s steady growth served as a welcome antidote … Continue reading

The China Syndrome: Is China headed for a financial meltdown?


In the 1979 movie The China Syndrome, Jack Lemmon plays Jack Godell, a supervisor at a nuclear power plant. The facility experienced “unusual vibrations” and Jack was concerned about a potential meltdown. Today, many believe that China – a country with the world’s second largest economy – may be on the verge of a “financial” … Continue reading

Future growth of India and China to be tuned by Japan


The gear shift of Asia’s growth in the decades to come is in the hand of Tokyo as Japan is in control of the formation of the emerging India-China-Japan (I+C+J) power structure in Asia. In its “World 2050” research report, PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) suggested that “… in purchasing power parity (PPP) terms … India should become … Continue reading

Productivity, not reproductivity, must be the new driver of Chinese growth


Around a quarter of China’s remarkable economic growth over the past three decades or so was delivered by the dividend from its demographic structure, with a young population augmenting the workforce and lifting output in new jobs. A large proportion of the population were of working age; the proportion of the young and the old … Continue reading

What’s behind the surprise drop in Chinese exports?


China’s exports for the month of March fell by 15% from a year ago (in dollar terms), the General Administration of Customs said today. It was a big surprise to markets and investors, who were expecting a rise of as much as 12%. Imports also dropped, by 12.3%, although that was in line with expectations. As a result … Continue reading

Three ways the rise of China’s stock market might change the world


When a market gets on a roll, nothing seems to stop it. We have just learnt that China’s exports fell by an alarming 15% last month, while its imports fell by the biggest amount since the financial crash of 2008 and 2009. And the Shanghai index? Well, you might expect it to be down at … Continue reading

China’s economy is worse than you think


China’s steel and metals markets, a barometer of the world’s second-biggest economy, are “a lot worse than you think,” according to a Bloomberg Intelligence analyst who just completed a tour of the country. What he saw: idle cranes, empty construction sites and half-finished, abandoned buildings in several cities. Conversations with executives reinforced the “gloomy” outlook. … Continue reading

China, the economy and Xi Jinping’s strategy


Few economies in the world are more closely watched than China’s. It is the second largest and fastest growing economy, so there’s a lot of attention being paid to who’s running things. Chinese President Xi Jinping is the most authoritarian leader the country has seen since since Mao Zedong. Jinping is making a clear effort … Continue reading

China’s SWIFT alternative (CIPS) and the engineered death of the dollar


Forget all the nonsense and hoopla about the Apple Watch or the GM stock buy-back. Far and away the most important economic story of the week is one you won’t find on the front page of Bloomberg or MarketWatch. New reports indicate that China is ready to launch its SWIFT alternative, and for those who … Continue reading

The astounding rise of China’s currency


I sometimes wonder how the Communist revolutionary leader Mao Zedong, who warned against taking “the capitalist road,” would feel about his face on all those Chinese bills being traded around the world these days. As of this week, the renminbi is being traded in a major way in Canada as well, after Finance Minister Joe Oliver opened North America’s first Chinese … Continue reading

Chinese nickel company in the black after registering record profits as a result of Indonesian bans


China’s second largest nickel company Xinjiang Xinxin Mining Industry revealed that it’s cash generative once again following a 300 percent rise in revenue for the 2014 fiscal period. According to a report on the South China Morning Post, the income boost was due to towering nickel prices last year, lower production costs, a new copper … Continue reading

China’s real GDP growth rate plummets to 1.7 percent, not the 7.4 percent reported by the government


Diana Choyleva of Lombard Street Research, who produces an “unmassaged” calculation of China’s true economic growth, just reported that China’s fourth quarter GDP growth plummeted to 1.7 percent, versus the official 7.4 percent rate. According Choyleva, “Dire data out of China are competing head-on with the Greek political drama as the most destabilising factor for … Continue reading

China likely to end up as former would-be superpower


Forecasts for China to surpass the US as the world’s main economic power are misplaced. So says an observer who foresaw Japan’s eventual demise a year before its land-price bubble began to burst. “The vulnerabilities in China today are very similar to the vulnerabilities in Japan,” said Roy Smith, 76, who was a Goldman Sachs … Continue reading

Can China break the vicious circle of economic slowdown and foreign capital exodus?


Is China’s economic slowdown causing the foreign capital exodus or vice versa? It is like the old question: which came first, the chicken or the egg? Let’s look at both scenarios. Economic slowdown has caused capital exodus. Taiwan media Want China Times says in its report “Foreign manufacturer exodus from China”, “With the Chinese economy … Continue reading

China’s long-awaited day of reckoning is close


All the devils have come together for the Chinese economy and the country’s “long-awaited day of reckoning” is upon us, writes Societe Generale analyst Wei Yao in a recent note. To China bears who’ve said that the country is a debt bubble, Wei’s conjecture will seem obvious. To bulls it raises another question: Where would … Continue reading

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