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Politics & Law

China in deeper trouble if Trump not granted Nobel Peace Prize


Aerial photo taken by the US Navy shows a US Navy ship almost came to colliding with a Chinese warship that had challenged the US vessel’s presence in the South China Sea (photo via CNN)

U.S. President Donald Trump wants the Nobel Peace Prize.

The Norwegian committee would owe him this honor if the Trump administration could really complete a denuclearization deal with North Korea.

According to a Feb 19 Reuters news, Trump does not need Prime Minister Abe’s nomination, he “has already been nominated by two Norwegian lawmakers.

‘We have nominated him of course for the positive developments on the Korean Peninsula,’ Per-Willy Amundsen, who was Justice Minister in Prime Minister Erna Solberg’s cabinet in 2016-2018, told Reuters …”

The key point, however, is that, assuming Trump did request Abe to nominate him, it implies Trump himself has a passionate wish for this honor, and he has been for this goal willing to modify his foreign policy to the extent that it is not so bellicose on one hand, and puts sensible self-restraint in effect on the other.

What if Trump is not granted with this Prize? When offering greetings to the Europeans on behalf of President Trump by Vice-President Pence in Poland on Feb 14 and in Munich on Feb 18, what he got were the same thing — total silence, no applause. It has been widely interpreted as a sign of Trump’s unpopularity in Europe. Therefore, the probability of not getting the Award is not low.

By the time Trump has realized that his Nobel Prize hope (no longer a wish now) would never materialize, his foreign policy could somehow change, most likely to become more belligerent (I predict Trump will get re-elected in 2020). Nobody knows how truculent the policy could be. It will cause at least two geopolitical concerns to Beijing. First, the risks over Taiwan and the South China Sea are non-calculable. Second, China’s close ally Iran may be in war with the US and what is more disastrous is that China’s other friend Israel may participate in this fight, thus putting Beijing in a difficult position.

It seems that the ‘Deep State’ in Washington basically continues as before to manage and execute the China strategies, including the day-to-day operations. If President Trump would not soften the Deep State’s hostility towards China as what he did over the past two years (such as the ban on chip sales to ZTE and cautious naval voyages through the Taiwan Strait), Beijing’s troubles will be bigger and more complex.

The opinions expressed are those of the author, and not necessarily those of China Daily Mail.

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About keith K C Hui

Keith K C Hui is a Chinese University of Hong Kong graduate major in Government and Public Administration and the author of "Helmsman Ruler: China's Pragmatic Version of Plato's Ideal Political Succession System In The Republic" (2013).

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