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Politics & Law

China remains calm while South Koreans worry mass evacuation by Japan and U.S.


China is still bridging U.S. and North Korea (picture from Chinadaily.com.cn)

The Associated Press reported on Sept 4 that there is “a growing worry that has many in South Korea and Japan asking a startling question … namely a separation or ‘decoupling’ of the decades-old security alliance between the United States and its top Asian allies, South Korea and Japan?”

A Korean student is quoted worrying “whether the U.S. will defend South Korea at a time when the U.S. mainland is under threat … If you look at what Trump said now, the answer seems to be no”.

“Some see a not-too-distant future” that Pyongyang may “attack Seoul or Tokyo without U.S. intervention because of American fears that North Korean retaliation could kill millions in American cities.” Woo Young-soo, a law lecturer, said he was “worried about whether the U.S. is really serious about defending its ally, South Korea, or if it’s putting its own national interest first.”

In other words, the so-called “all options on the table” include American withdrawal after arming the two allies with nuclear weapons. It is exactly what I said in April 2016 [Note 1].

It therefore makes sense that, according to New York Post, Japan is planning possible mass evacuation amid North Korea threat on Sept 4 as well.

Of course, the Trump administration may also be thinking of bombing North Korea after having evacuated their soldiers — 54,000 in Japan and 28,500 in South Korea — and the civilians, but whether a war would come true also depends on what and how Beijing and Moscow are acting and reacting.

I do not have insider information, but am sure that Kim Jong-un is crystal clear that North Korea must not be the first party to attack, or otherwise it would be all alone. So long as Pyongyang is not alone, the White House cannot afford to be reckless.

In other words, whom Beijing and Moscow are watching is not Pyongyang, but Washington (and perhaps the hawkish Abe). If even I could have predicted such a very likely option of American retreat, Beijing too could have had similar political calculation and thus being so calm.

By the time Seoul and Washington are willing to uninstall the THAAD system as requested by Beijing and stop all the joint military drills and war games as requested by Pyongyang, then tension would cool down with the beginning of the six-party talk.

[Note 1]
Foreign Policy In Focus: Keith K C Hui, “Trump’s remarks reveal fears about US troops in harm’s way from North Korea”, Apr 7, 2016.
http://fpif.org/trumps-remarks-reveal-fears-u-s-troops-harms-way-north-korea/

The opinions expressed are those of the author, and not necessarily those of China Daily Mail.

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About keith K C Hui

Keith K C Hui is a Chinese University of Hong Kong graduate major in Government and Public Administration and the author of "Helmsman Ruler: China's Pragmatic Version of Plato's Ideal Political Succession System In The Republic" (2013).

Discussion

2 thoughts on “China remains calm while South Koreans worry mass evacuation by Japan and U.S.

  1. These matters are very complicated indeed.
    We have on the one hand politicians who by all standards are not the most honest humans in the world.
    No matter where they are or what platform they PRETEND to push for the interest of the public at large.
    In all honesty, politicians do not give a rats ass about any public person, we the public are viewed as tax slaves no more and no less.
    Than we have the weapons manufacturers and their large wel paid lobby groups, much to gain for them in DOLLAR sence that is.
    Than we have the Taliban Christians of the USA who love war in the name of Jezus.
    We have the stubborn extreme Muslims who have never read the Koran and understood its values.
    To top it all of we have old EX-Communist states with leaders who where agents in the KGB.
    Real trustworthy guys they are! How did old Putti get so rich? ever wandered about that?
    So you know my friend(s) the world is fucked.
    Mankind cannot control its urges to go to war.
    How very primitive and uninelligent!!

    Only when the public learns to unite and stay home for a month or two, when the public learns to say, just a fucken minute here, this planet belongs to all of us, and not just governemnt scum.
    Perhaps than there might be hope for mankind.
    BUT:
    I doubt it.
    People are just to busy making a living and paying their taxes, they have no energy left to fight the scum at the top of the Manure pile.
    And so wars will continue, people will die, things will get broken, and many tears will flow.

    Have a nice day dreamers, see you all in Hell!

    Like

    Posted by Arend Hendrik van Vierzen 3d | September 7, 2017, 2:09 am
  2. Reblogged this on World Peace Forum.

    Like

    Posted by daveyone1 | September 7, 2017, 4:55 am

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