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Defence & Aerospace

China and the United States are preparing for war


Chinese Soldiers

Chinese Soldiers

Usually countries fight for gains or to prevent losses, but US experts are quite different. Michael Pillsbury, the director of the Centre on Chinese Strategy at the Hudson Institute, holds quite different views. In his recent article “China and the United States Are Preparing for War” he holds that war is inevitable because China is not willing to reveal its real military strength.

As a Chinese person, I know very well the commencement of China’s arms race with the US two years ago. It was reflected in my post “Arms Race between China and America” on March 5, 2012.

The arms race began when China realised that the real aim of the US pivot to Asia was to encircle China, though the US repeatedly denied that.

Before the arms race, China had also been making efforts to catch up with the US in weapon developments for fear of US support for Taiwan’s independence. It began to develop DF-21D anti-ship ballistic missiles to destroy US aircraft carriers.

However, there was no such urgency as an arms race when the US made clear that it opposes Taiwan’s independence.

The arms race now is an earnest one into which China has input a great deal of funds and other resources. In addition to domestic development efforts, China has spent large amounts of foreign exchange to purchase weapons and weapon technology from Russia and other European countries.

China is doing so to deal with US interference in its maritime territorial disputes with Japan, the Philippines and Vietnam. It is well-known that there are rich energy and fish resources in the disputed waters. If China fights, it fights for real interests, but the US, if involved, will be fighting to help its allies without economic gains.

If the US refuses to be involved, there will be no war between China and the US, even if China is stronger than the US, because China will gain nothing in attacking the US.

For the US, war is very expensive now, and American soldier’s lives are even more precious. Why should the US waste its financial resources and risk its people’s lives for other countries’ interests?

According to Mr. Pillsbury, the US will fight China due to China’s failure to reveal its military strength. I do not really see his wisdom. Does he mean that the US will attack China when China has secretly enhanced its military strength to have surpassed the US? It does not seem wise for the US to attack a country stronger than it. Can the US be sure that it will win the war?

Or does he mean that the US will attack China when China is inferior in military strength and refuses to reveal the truth? However, that is precisely the reason why China is unwilling to reveal its real military strength. If the US is clear how weak China is compared with the US, it will be easy for the US to make a decision to attack China.

It was common in European history that when a country grew stronger than others, the weaker ones joined force to fight the stronger one for balance of strength. However, that will not be the case for the US. Europe has been selling weapons and technology and components of weapons to China to help it in its arms race with the US. Europe certainly will not join the US in fighting China.

Russia also fears a China stronger than it. It could have been the best ally for the US in countering China, but the US has been containing Russia, and pushed it to China’s side. Now, there is much bigger possibility of Russia joining China to fight the US, than Russia joining the US to fight China.

What is the real reason for an inevitable war between the US and China according to Mr. Pillsbury? We find it in the title of his forthcoming book The Hundred-Year Marathon: China’s Secret Strategy to Replace America as the Global Superpower.

The US wants to remain the global superpower, even if another country grows stronger due to its leaders’ good governance and its people’s talents and diligence. The US unfortunately has poor governance that makes it impossible for its people to give play to their talents and diligence.

In such a case, the US will not improve its governance to make its economy prosper and its people happy, but will instead waste its precious resources and people’s lives to fight a stronger power, to prevent that power from growing even stronger, its economy from growing even more prosperous and its people from becoming happier.

What bizarre reasons for war.

The following is the full text of Michael Pillsbury’s article:

China and the United States Are Preparing for War

Despite the Obama-Xi handshake deal, the probability of confrontation will only heighten as long as the PLA remains a black box.

At a Nov. 12 news conference in Beijing, General Secretary of the Communist Party Xi Jinping and U.S. President Barack Obama agreed to notify the other side before major military activities, and to develop a set of rules of behaviour for sea and air encounters, in order to avoid military confrontations in Asia. “It’s incredibly important that we avoid inadvertent escalation,” Ben Rhodes, a U.S. deputy national security advisor, was quoted by the Wall Street Journal as saying. An “accidental circumstance,” he said, could “lead into something that could precipitate conflict.”

Should we really be worried about war between the United States and China? Yes. Over the last four decades of studying China, I have spoken with hundreds of members of China’s military, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), and read countless Chinese military journals and strategy articles. Chinese military and political leaders believe that their country is at the centre of American war planning. In other words, Beijing believes that the United States is readying itself for the possibility of a conflict with China — and that it must prepare for that eventuality.

Tensions are high not just because of Beijing’s rapidly expanding military budget, or because the United States continues to commit an increasingly high percentage of its military assets to the Pacific as part of its “rebalance” strategy. Rather, the biggest problem is Chinese opacity. While it’s heartening to hear Xi agree to instruct the PLA to be more open with regard to the United States, it is doubtful this will lead to any real changes.

Washington is willing to share a substantial amount of military information with China, in order to “reduce the chances of miscommunication, misunderstanding or miscalculation,” as then U.S. Defence Secretary Robert Gates said during a January 2011 trip to Beijing. But the Chinese leadership, which benefits from obfuscation and asymmetric tactics, refuses to communicate its military’s intentions.

Despite repeated entreaties from American officials, Beijing is unwilling to talk about many key military issues — like the scope and intentions of its rapid force buildup, development of technologies that could cripple American naval forces in the region, and its military’s involvement in cyberattacks against the United States — that would lower friction between the two sides. And sometimes, as in 2010 after U.S. arms sales to Taiwan, Beijing breaks off military-to-military contacts altogether — leading to an especially troubling silence.

As a result, there is a growing mistrust of China among many thoughtful people in the U.S. government. Chinese military officers have complained to me that journals of the American war colleges now feature articles on war with China, and how the United States can win. A February 2014 article, for example, in the U.S. Naval Institute’s Proceedings magazine, entitled “Deterring the Dragon,” proposes laying offensive underwater mines along China’s coast to close China’s main ports and destroy its sea lines of communications. The article also suggests sending special operations forces to arm China’s restive minorities in the country’s vast western regions.

But China is doing the same thing. In 2013, Gen. Peng Guangqian and Gen. Yao Youzhi updated their now-classic text, The Science of Military Strategy, and called for Beijing to add to the quality and quantity of its nuclear weapons, in order to close the gap between China and both Russia and the United States. Even Xi’s “new model” of great-power relations seems to preclude arms control negotiations, requiring the United States to yield to the inevitability of China’s rise.

Many people outside the Pentagon may be surprised by just how many senior American officials are worried about a war with China. These include no less than the last U.S. two secretaries of defense, and a former secretary of state. In the concluding chapter of Henry Kissinger’s 2011 book, On China, he warns of a World War I-style massive Chinese-American war. “Does history repeat itself?” he asks.

Over at least the last decade, on several occasions the United States has pressed China to be more forthright about its military intentions and capabilities. In April 2006, after a meeting between President George W. Bush, Secretary of Defence Donald Rumsfeld, and Chinese President Hu Jintao, both governments announced the start of talks between the strategic nuclear force commanders on both sides. This move would have been extremely important in demonstrating openness about military intentions. But the PLA dragged its feet, and the talks never started.

In a September 2012 trip to Beijing, Defence Secretary Leon Panetta tried to persuade Beijing to enter military talks. Like his predecessor Gates, Panetta called for four specific areas of strategic dialogue: nuclear weapons, missile defense, outer space, and cybersecurity. But the Chinese objected, and again the talks never happened.

Sure, Beijing could follow through on the agreements announced during Obama’s recent trip. But I’m sceptical. One of the biggest advantages China has over the United States is the asymmetry of military knowledge. Why would they give that up?

Source: Foreign Policy “China and the United States Are Preparing for War”

 

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About chankaiyee2

Author of the book "Tiananmen's Tremendous Achievements" about how with the help of Tiananmen Protests, talented scholars with moral integrity seized power in the Party and state and brought prosperity to China. The second edition of the book will be published within a few days to mark the 25th anniversary of Tiananmen Protests All the parts in the first edition remain in the second edition with a few changes due to information available later and better understanding. There are also some changes for improvements of style. The new parts are Chapters 12-19 on events in China after the first edition was published: The fierce power struggle for succession between reformists and conservatives; Xi Jinping winning all elders’ support during his mysterious disappearance for 2 weeks in early September, 2012; and Xi Jinping Cyclone. Chan Kai Yee's new book: SPACE ERA STRATEGY: The Way China Beats The US An eye-opening book that tells the truth how the US is losing to China. The US is losing as it adopts the outdated strategy of Air-Sea Battle while China adopts the space era strategy to pursue integrated space and air capabilities: It is losing due to its diplomacy that has given rise to Russian-Chinese alliance. US outdated strategy has enabled China to catch up and surpass the US in key weapons: Hypersonic weapons (HGV) that Pentagon regards as the weapon that will dominate the world in the future. Aerospaceplane in China’s development of space-air bomber that can engage enemy anywhere in the world within an hour and destroy an entire aircraft carrier battle group within minutes. Anti-satellite (ASAT) weapons, anti-ASAT weapons, stealth aircrafts, drones, AEW&C, etc. The book gives detailed descriptions of China’s weapon development based on information mainly from Chinese sources that the author monitors closely. U.S. Must Not Be Beaten by China! China is not a democracy. Its political system cannot prevent the emergence of a despotic leader or stop such a leader when he begins to bring disasters to people. A few decades ago, Mao Zedong, the worst tyrant in world history did emerge and bring disasters to Chinese people. He wanted to fight a nuclear war to replace capitalism with communism but could not bring nuclear holocaust to world people as China was too weak and poor at that time. If a despot like Mao Zedong emerges when China has surpassed the US in military strength, world people will suffer the misery experienced by Chinese people in Mao era. China surpassing the US in GDP is not something to worry about as China has the heavy burden to satisfy its huge population, but China surpassing the US in military strength will be world people’s greatest concern if China remains an autocracy. US people are of much better quality than Chinese people. What they lack is a wise leader to adopt the correct strategy and diplomacy and the creative ways to use its resources in developing its military capabilities. I hope that with the emergence of a great leader, the US can put an end to its decline and remain number one in the world. China, US, space era strategy, air-sea battle, space-air bomber, arms race, weapon development, chan kai yee

Discussion

26 thoughts on “China and the United States are preparing for war

  1. Someone explain to me the Western hype about all this diplomatic rubbish, when everybody knows, China don’t care about what they agree to, even if they give you that in writing.

    They know, all they need to do is just that.

    Then you go all home, thinking, you got them agree, when really you SHOULD know, they never do.

    Could some-one come forward and give us just ONE reason, why we even still bother talking with them?

    ONE? Any One?

    Like

    Posted by You know me already ;-) | January 4, 2015, 2:54 pm
    • Money hungry fools who have China make their products for sale in the U.S.A.and our stupid ass government who don,t give a shit about the people of the United States and just care about themselves..

      Like

      Posted by Bernard | May 28, 2015, 6:39 am
  2. China must be prepared for any eventuality with the US. Though they are each other ‘s
    largest trading partners,the US aint prepared to treat China as an equal.
    That is why China must build up its military. Though the US can prevail,it will think twice about provoking war with China.
    Sooner or later the US navy will send its ships within the 12 km declared Chinese territorial waters in the
    name of freedom of navigation.This could be to provoke Chinao into war when the US has all the aces.
    The US goaded NV into attacking US ships in the Tonkin Gulf.Thats why 58000 young GIs died.
    China maybe defeated and China ravaged but rest assured the US wont escape destruction .
    That is the price to be paid.I hope there are rational heads in the WH.

    Like

    Posted by Mike China | October 10, 2015, 3:58 pm
    • The US has vastly more experience, the US will only tolerate China’s stealing of other countries islands for so long. The US doesn’t care what goes on in that polluted shithole, but the US does care when China intrudes where they know damn well that they do not belong, a conflict against China would be unspeakably bloody, but the Chinese haven’t the mobility or force projection the US has. The support the US has is unmatched and would make the difference. Any attack made by China would be a useless gesture, no matter what technical data they’ve attained, the US is better equipped than China realizes…

      Like

      Posted by Woody | January 14, 2016, 2:47 pm
    • Is this what you do? Incite fear and evoke thoughts or war rather than make a consideration of doing your best for peace? Your comments are a complete justification of ANY other countries actions. No one wants to bring China down and welcomes a strong and prosperous China and it’s people..but HOOOOO the mainland Chinese are SOOOOO arrogant and seem hell bent on saying ” GIMMME THAT OR I WILL KICK UR ASS.” No one is going to take that …wake up to yourself!

      Like

      Posted by woofwoof doglet | February 24, 2016, 7:18 pm
  3. I find many of the things in the Chinese persons post to be just plain untrue. This may be beacuse he/she lives in a society of controlled news. i.e. google BANNED etc., with only state sanctioned information being allowed or you suffer arrest otherwise. This is not a state of freedom and expression of thought. This is clear by the Chinese person saying the US does not sanction independence by Taiwan. This is utter crap and the US has actually given a GUARANTEE to Taiwan that it will fight to ensure it’s independence. ON THAT NOTE….why does CHINA want to invade and subjugate Taiwan? It is NOT China , just the as the Spratley islands IS not part of China, but the Chinese are sure as hell bent on making them Chinese..is this NOT beligerant aggression towards others in the region who not only SAY they have legitimate claims but are willing to have it adjudicated on in the international court? A system that only CHINA has said it wont abide by! NOPE there needs to be a focus on TRUE information, one which is sadly lacking in China…the BEST example is Hong Kong…they would love to be BRITISH again after the Chinese have trodden on the structure of democratic principals the Hong People considered to be their heritage. What is WRONG with the Chinese people? Why can’t they UNDERSTAND that the counties they are wanting to fight are the ONLY countries on earth willing to stand up for other peoples rights? Why don’t the CHINESE do this and join to ensure peace, stability, truth AND justice? But they don’t……………………..they twist it. After submitting this and revealing my e mail addy I bet it is hacked

    Like

    Posted by woofwoof doglet | February 24, 2016, 7:14 pm

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