Quite a few Chinese believe a naive Chinese girl’s prediction that China will fight a war with Vietnam for reunification. It will be one of the six wars she believes that China will fight within the coming five decades.
I would rather predict the contrary: Vietnam will become China’s best friend, as it will become increasingly dependent on China due not only to the large volume of trade, but more to fast growing Chinese investment and tourists.
Among the large number of Chinese neighbours, only North Korea and Vietnam provide easy and cheap access to Chinese low-budget tourists.
Compared with Korea, Vietnam is much more dependent on Chinese tourists as China is its only neighbour that is able to provide a large number of tourists. It is quite a remote and expensive tourist destination for rich Western countries.
Moreover, Vietnamese language and culture are close to Chinese, making Vietnam a much more acceptable destination for Chinese investors and tourists, especially from China’s rich southern areas.
What Vietnam contends with China now is the rich energy resources in the disputed waters, but the economic interests related to trade, investment and tourism will grow and gradually exceed the income from energy exploitation in importance.
If China allows Vietnam to have a share in energy exploitation acceptable to Vietnam, the growth in the interests from trade, investment and tourism will make those from energy exploitation less significant.
For China, however, the South China Sea, including disputed waters, is much more important due to its potential in developing alga farming, fishing, fish farming and tourism. China’s massive construction of artificial islands on seven reefs proves that China has a long-term view to exploit such resources in addition to energy resources.
Other claimants, however, fail to see and lack the financial resources and industrial capabilities to exploit such resources. Maintaining friendly relations with Vietnam will enable China to gradually establish its monopoly of the fishery, farming and tourism in the South China Sea.
Compared with colonisation of foreign lands, which has proved unsuccessful for Western colonialists, taking sea areas is much safer and easier.
The following is the full text of Reuters report today on China and Vietnam’s efforts to mend ties:
China, Vietnam say want lasting solution to sea dispute
China and Vietnam agreed on Monday to use an existing border dispute mechanism to find a solution to a territorial dispute in the South China Sea, saying they did not want it to affect relations.
The two countries have sought to patch up ties since their long-running row erupted in May, triggered by China’s deployment a drilling rig in waters claimed by the communist neighbors, which lead to confrontation at sea between rival vessels and violent anti-Chinese protests in Vietnam.
After a meeting between China’s top diplomat, State Councilor Yang Jiechi, and Vietnam Foreign Minister Pham Binh Minh in Hanoi, China’s foreign ministry said they had agreed to “appropriately handle the maritime problem”.
The two exchanged smiles and warm handshakes in contrast to Yang’s last visit in June, which ended in acrimony with Yang accusing Vietnam of “hyping up” their dispute, which was the worst breakdowns in their relations since a brief border war in 1979.
The rapprochement began in late August, a few weeks after Vietnam started courting other countries embroiled in maritime rows with China, including the Philippines and China’s biggest investor, Japan, which will provide boats and radar equipment to Vietnam’s coastguard.
Most significant for Vietnam has been improvements in its defense ties with former foe the United States, including an Oct. 2 U.S. decision to start easing a three-decade arms embargo, which would strengthen Vietnam’s coastguard capability and in future lead to weapons sales, ships and airborne systems.
China and Vietnam would “properly use a border negotiation mechanism between the two governments to seek a basic, lasting resolution both sides can accept”, the Chinese foreign ministry said.
They also agreed to “manage and control maritime disputes, not take any acts to complicate or expand the disagreement”.
“At present, Sino-Vietnam relations are at a crucial stage of improvement and development,” the ministry cited Yang, who outranks the foreign minister, as saying.
The Chinese statement made no mention of the $1 billion rig, Haiyang Shiyou 981, which China moved out of the contested waters on July 15, saying its activities were complete.
Last week, Chinese and Vietnamese leaders met on the sidelines of an Asia-Europe summit in Italy and agreed to “address and control” maritime disputes.
Communist parties rule both countries and their trade has swelled to $50 billion annually, but Vietnam has long been suspicious of its giant neighbor, especially over China’s claims to almost the entire South China Sea.
A warming of ties would be favorable to Vietnam’s leadership, which found itself in a tricky spot domestically, needing to contain simmering anti-China sentiment over perceived bullying while not provoking a neighbor crucial to its far smaller economy.
Analysts say the issue is likely to have been a hot debate within Vietnam’s secretive Communist party, where members are believed to have mixed opinions about ties with China.
Vietnam’s Foreign Ministry said it was important for both sides to “seriously” and “urgently” fulfill their commitments.
“Vietnam-China relations developing healthily and stably is suitable with the desire and fundamental interests of the two countries, benefiting peace, stability and development,” it said in a statement. “Both sides will together make an effort to seriously implement the agreements.”
The Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei and Taiwan also have claims to parts of the potentially energy-rich waters, and China has looked on with suspicion at what it sees as U.S. moves to “provoke” tension by supporting its regional allies, such as the notably the Philippines, as well as Vietnam.Source: Reuters “China, Vietnam say want lasting solution to sea dispute”
- China urges peaceful development of seas by all countries, while not following its own advice (chinadailymail.com)
- China says it does not want war with Vietnam; that really means that they will start one (chinadailymail.com)
- China’s aggression could see formation of a powerful anti-China alliance (chinadailymail.com)
- Philippines says China appears to be building airstrip on disputed reef (chinadailymail.com)
- Short-term Enmity but Long-term Friendship between China and Vietnam (tiananmenstremendousachievements.wordpress.com)
- China, Vietnam Say They Want Lasting Solution to Sea Dispute (irrawaddy.org)
- China, Vietnam say want lasting solution to sea dispute (worldbulletin.net)
- China, Vietnam call for lasting solution to sea dispute (ajw.asahi.com)
- China, Vietnam Say They Seek Lasting Solution to Sea Dispute (voanews.com)
- China’s top diplomat to visit Vietnam again amid sea dispute (dailymail.co.uk)