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Politics & Law

The Philippines and China will have a deal rather than a fight


Summit between The Philippines and China

Summit between The Philippines and China

The opinions expressed are those of the author, and not necessarily those of China Daily Mail.

The “Kawayan politika” and “Balimbing diplomasya” approaches adopted by the late Philippine president Corazon Cojuangco Aquino (1933-2009) remarkably cultivated warm relationships between The Philippines and her neighbours in general and China in particular during her tenure (1986-92). These flexible diplomatic strategies were carried on by her successors, Ramos (1992-98), Estrada (1998-2001) and Arroyo (2001-10). The relation between China and The Philippines reached a peak during Arroyo’s time, not just due to rapid growth of international trade but also owing to the absence of conflict of fundamental interest.

When Benigno Aquino came to power, he was so smart to note that he lacked something really saleable to catch up with the high speed economic ASEAN train led by China as the leading locomotive. While Malaysia has rubber and sugarcane (its trade with China jumped from US$37bn in 2006 to US$90bn in 2011, grew by 143%), Indonesia has timber and coal ($19bn/2006 to $61bn/2011, +221%), Singapore has financial and logistics edges of all sorts ($41bn/2006 to $64bn/2011, +56%), Thailand ($28bn/2006 to $65bn/2011, +132%), Cambodia ($0.7bn/2006 to $2.5bn/2011, +257%), Laos ($0.2bn/2006 to $1.3bn/2011, +550%) and Myanmar ($1.5bn/2006 to $6.2bn/2011, +313%) have strategically geographical proximity, the 7,109-island republic ($2.3bn/2006 to $3.2bn/2011, +39%) does not have many featured items to trade with the energy hungry and resources exhausted China except the magnetite in the Luzon areas. Although the English-speaking capability of its population has attracted many American corporations to come to Manila to operate off-shore call centres for their customers, the crude reserves below the seabed are the basis of Aquino’s hope to bring long term prosperity to his mother country.

If a multi-national commercial deal is to be hammered between the surrounding countries and China for exploiting the crude, gas and minerals under the South China Sea in the coming decades, it is absolutely a right gesture for Aquino to be firm and loud on the sovereignty issue or otherwise the Filipino’s share of the pie will be minimal. It is simply because, at the bargaining table, Aquino has little to offer for all the necessary financial funding, technical know-how, equipment and infrastructure such as port facilities. To strengthen his position, he changed the game and drew in the U.S. to back him up.  All his moves so far are tactically correct.

The only problem is that Aquino has overdone it, to the extent that some of the moves were too provocative.  The unnecessary stand-off between the Philippine marines and Chinese naval vessels in May 2013 was a typical example.

There are essentially only two options available to The Philippines. Option A is to strike a good multi-national deal to exploit the treasure under the sea. Option B is to do it unilaterally and the following question is that when the Chinese naval vessels come to block the construction of the offshore crude oil rigs, will the U.S. battleships show up? My answer is: NO. During the recent Syria crisis, the opinion poll on entry into war showed that ordinary Americans did not want to engage into a combat which was basically none of their business. If the abuse of chemical weapons and the humanity concern cannot get the Americans involved, there will be absolutely no justification for sending troops to die for the crude in dispute between two Asian countries.

There were neither historical nor ethnical problems between these two nations. The so-called tension can be scaled down and unknotted easily. With reference to Taiwan, the solution is: WAIT. Aquino’s personal style of high profile leadership will be ended by the completion of his tenure. Both ordinary Filipinos and the powerful oligarchic groups such as Cojuangco, Ayala and Roxas will sensibly choose the path to talk for preserving and fostering their vested interests rather than to fight. The future presidents of the Philippines are unlikely to be so hawkish.

In the coming decades, more deals will be achieved between China and South Asia, the Middle East and Africa, delivering tangible advantages to the peoples through peaceful co-operation on all fronts. The Chinese helmsman rulers who are trained to look very long term can afford to wait for the next generation of counterparty for real talk. Take a quick look at Taiwan: Beijing applied patience for eight years to see the end of Chen Shui-bian’s tenure (2000-08) and then provided numerous commercial benefits to the island when Ma Ying-jeou came to power. China will do almost the same to The Philippines.  What the real question the Filipinos should think is how big their warehouses are to fill the incoming advantages.

Trade data is from National Bureau of Statistics of China http://data.stats.gov.cn/workspace/index?m=hgnd
 
By Keith K C Hui
 
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About keith K C Hui

Keith K C Hui is a Chinese University of Hong Kong graduate major in Government and Public Administration and the author of "Helmsman Ruler: China's Pragmatic Version of Plato's Ideal Political Succession System In The Republic" (2013).

Discussion

20 thoughts on “The Philippines and China will have a deal rather than a fight

  1. Thank you for your contribution. Hope to see more.

    Like

    Posted by Asianviews | November 27, 2013, 2:51 pm
  2. Your pragmatic point of view is a breath of fresh air as most writers don’t see this approach as feasible to gain readership. Like a society, Asian nations will thrive and function only when the the atmosphere is based on trust. That is the reality.
    There will be unavoidable differences and the only way to foster trust is through dialogues.It is irrational and unproductive to point out who did something first,who said something first etc…
    Egos aside, the revert to the former status quo will not be that hard for the Filipinos in my opinion. Contrary to popular belief, there is not really an active,organized and respected group that has an anti-China stance in the Philippines (ironically,the US has that privilege until now)due to its long history of coexistence with Chinese immigrants.
    After all the rhetoric that has been spouted from both sides,I’d wager that the worst events that might have been extreme in regards to the ordinary Filipinos’ point of view is CY leung’s regrettable politicization of the sad Bus tragedy by proposing to economically sanction the country in order to pressure the Philippine Government to give a swift and better deal for the victims, not to mention his wish to score political points. While Filipino citizens are languishing from the aftermath of Typhoon Haiyan.At that same time,they had to accept and suffer the aftermath more through the same reason why the hostage rescue was botched-Their Government’s current situation.
    I’d rather not comment of what opinions the Chinese side has in regards to the current cold relations.But I am certain of the fact that the Chinese can be a reasonably great partner and neighbour given the right conditions.
    Judging by Beijing’s track record of pragmatic approach in lieu to Deng Xiao Ping’s past leadership.And despite Beijing’s acute assertiveness,I’d wager your vision is highly probable.I’m sure Beijing’s share of assertiveness that caught Aquino off-guard has other reasons besides exercising what it rightly views as protection of its sovereign rights.It is my wish that the Chinese leadership soon iron it out after the leadership tackles its current challenging domestic issues.

    More power to you!

    Like

    Posted by jefferson santos | November 28, 2013, 3:11 am
    • I am joyful to know you through China Daily Mail. I admire your to-the-point analysis and in-depth insight. If you know Taiwan well, you can find out that the way Beijing treated the pro-independence Chen is very much the same as the manner towards Aquino right now. As what you said, the anti-China mood in The Philippines is neither strong nor popular. The relation between these two nations will be back to be very friendly overnight once the leadership in Manila is different. Look forward to reading your views (comments or articles).

      Like

      Posted by keith K C Hui | November 28, 2013, 12:32 pm
  3. The article shows respective reality in the maritime dispute of South China Sea. The main interest of all nations involved is crude and oil. But since President Aquino choose the arbitration to settle the dispute, I have no idea what kind of deal your talking about if court decision will favor to the Philippines. Very sure Manila will invite giant firms to exploit the resources thru bidding.

    Like

    Posted by Bryan | November 28, 2013, 4:04 pm
    • President Aquino’s resort to arbitration is definitely a wise move. Nevertheless, [1] arbitration is binding if and only if both parties concerned “are committed” and “must have a modicum of trust in each other” (page 3 in Carla S. Copeland, “The Use of Arbitration To Settle Territorial Disputes”, Fordham Law Review, Vol 67, Issue 6, 1999); and [2] arbitration of this type takes very long time and, like many ordinary commercial arbitrations, anything such as compromise and deal can happen in due course before the verdict, subject to behind the scene negotiations. Realistically speaking, [1] Beijing is unlikely to accept arbitration as a means for settlement; [2] as long as the dispute is hanging, foreign rigs firms and insurance companies etc would hesitate to get involved, unless they have “guarantees” from the White House, assuming they will never think of securing a contract from Chinese firms in future. Arbitration proposal is merely a tactic for bargaining. At the end, there will be a deal. Of course, no one knows the terms at this moment. That is why politics could be so fascinating.

      Like

      Posted by keith K C Hui | November 28, 2013, 5:36 pm
  4. Well, that feeling is mutual then.I believe that the point of view we share is either outright unpopular or mildly incomprehensible to most people.I think the reason for that is most people are looking for views or rhetoric that will appease their feelings (the same reason why humans has irrational practices like religion, self-defeating actions , etc…). Placing appeasement of feelings before possible solutions is very dangerous when mixed with our highly valued principles. When mixed, the possible consequences of our actions will be blurred up to the time the damage has been done.
    People that values pragmatism also has to have a delicate balance because we can be easily pointed as traitors of the principles that is also highly valued by us.
    Besides the fact that I pointed out from above,it can also be very lonely to be in this frame of mind. If loneliness is the price,so be it! I believe that price is a bargain in order not to be an agent madness at this decisive times.
    I’ll devote some time to know more about the cross strait relations. Thanks for pointing out that it can serve as a barometer for future movements of Beijing.

    Like

    Posted by jefferson santos | November 28, 2013, 7:53 pm
    • YOU ARE A BIASED COMMENTATOR OR POSTER……YOU ARE DISREGARDING THE RULE OF INTERNATIONAL LAW…..THE INTERNATIONAL LAW SPEAKS FOR OUR SIDE AS FILIPINOS WHICH IS THE MORALLY RIGHT AND LEGAL…..WHAT BELONGS TO THE PHILIPPINES BELONGS TO THE PHILIPPINES –THE FILIPINO PEOPLE…….DO YOU THINK CHINA WILL BE HAPPY IF WE INTRUDE IN THEIR TERRITORIES AND GRAB THEIR RESOURCES USING OUIR SUPERIOR GUNS ON THEIR FACES?????YOU REALLY CAN NOT MAKE WHITE INTO BLACK…..YOU SHOULD STICK TO INTERNATIONAL AND MORAL ETHICS……..THE MAJORITY OF THE FILIPINO PEOPLE ARE IN PUBERTY…..IT IS ONLY NOW THAT WE SHOULD EXPLOIT OUR GOD-GIVEN NATURAL RESOURCES……BUT BECAUSE OF THE BULLISH ATTITUDE AND THE GREEDINESS OF THE COMMUNIST CHINA—WE CAN NOT EVEN FISH IN OUR OWN WATER!!!!!!!IF WE CAN NOT CONTAIN CHINA now—-i hope OUR GOD will contain HER—-THE COMMUNIST LEADERSHIP OF CHINA!!!!!WE ARE BEING DEPRIVED OF OUR RESOURCES AND RAMPANTLY AGGRESSIVELY GRAB IN FRONT OF OUR EYES OUR MARINE RESOURCES AND FISH…EVEN THE ENDANGERED SPECIES ARE BEING GRABBED BY THESE GREEDY CHIENSE FIHERMAN AND POACHERS……..MAY OUR GOD HELP US………IF OUR GOD WILL ACT SOON—THEN CHINA WILL REALIZE THAT OUR GOD IS THE ONLY TRUE GOD WHO PROTECTS US,,,……

      Like

      Posted by edwin claveria | January 12, 2014, 9:43 pm
  5. smart.

    Like

    Posted by Sai Akiyama | November 28, 2013, 10:31 pm
  6. all crap another propaganda your insight only directed to make the Philippines to comply to what china wants and that is to become an underdog and don’t be mistaken because either of the two option that you give there’s no feasible gain on both one things for sure china wants the resources of the Philippines we might be at the low-end right now but were not loosing hope and its not about our economy its all about our leader leading the country’s economy and they are all corrupt remember this even though the politicians in our country is corrupt the Filipino people still manage to come up with something that’s how great we are, what more if there will be a leader that will dedicate his position for our mother country imagine what can the Filipinos achieved if that happens we have the knowledge, man power, resources and most important of all our faith in god while doing what we need to do.

    Like

    Posted by Uchiha Sera | November 29, 2013, 10:12 am
    • You are well justified to say my arguement is all crap since I am a HK Chinese. Can we change the perspective? Take a look at history and please kindly correct me if I use emotional terms or get anything factually wrong. It was Spain (1565-1896), the U.S. (1898-1943) and Japan (1943-45) who came to colonize The Philippines. When China was strong during the Ming Dynasty and Zheng He (or San Bao) set sail to South East Asia and East Africa for seven times (1405-33), he could have done what the British Empire with a powerful fleet did to the region (1815-1914), namely, conquering the territories and establishing colonial governments. No, the Chinese never did. Even though many Chinese immigrants came to this region afterward and you may think they were “annoying”, they came for making a living here and observed the law and order here. All the Filippinos I know in HK mainly enjoy doing these two things — sing and dance, and all the Chinese I know mainly enjoy doing these two things — eat and gamble. Gambling is actually a fair game, it means they never intend to rob by using force. They play by the rules of game and want to have a good and fair deal for good return. I can sense that the Filippinos are a peace-loving nation. Mr Manny Pacquiao looks and behaves the same as a kind and polite gentleman outside the boxing ring. I am one of his fans. Why are some of the Filippinos suddenly so hawish after the end of Arroys’s tenure? Please be aware that by saying something threatening, newspapers sell better, online journals attract more eyeballs, and politicians win more votes. Right now, what all the governments in this region want the most is the same — to dig the treasure out of the seabed and seek for economic growth. During the negotiation process, it is fine to be tactical but it is not the right direction to become hawish.

      Like

      Posted by keith K C Hui | November 29, 2013, 12:08 pm
      • If there is a correlation between manifestations of hawkish views of Filipinos and the rule of Arroyo,There can be a lot of other factors but maybe that is because she was the first de facto dictator of The Philippines that used domestic terrorism as a distraction for her illegitimate almost decade rule(Marcos was initially legitimately elected and there was a communist insurgency during his time. He just won’t let go of his power later).
        During her rule,she was able to perform great geopolitical balancing acts as she sold the country’s integrity by unilaterally ( no consultation with the congress) giving U.S. government a legal basis for its army to come back to the Philippines and also sign a grossly unfair joint exploration deal with Beijing in regards with the disputed islands (without consulting ASEAN)in exchange of a hefty loan that all taxpaying Filipinos will shoulder as debt with interest after she plunders the money .Her act bred animosity towards the Philippines throughout the ASEAN states .
        All the Filipino people were opposed but are forced to be silent while the big eastern and western powers maintained positive relations with Arroyo.
        When her tenure was over, the Filipinos acquired and maintained a new view of U.S. and China as two powers with self Interests that does not coincide with their basic rights,while realizing they need these two for trade and security. Just imagine Aquino’s challenge and difficulty for balancing negotiations as he also has to clean up the mess Arroyo left behind.Most Filipinos view that the two powers are in the country (U.S. at former military bases and China at the western Islands) while they have no power to tell those two to keep its distance. Filipinos have already accepted that their country will always be a strategic buffer during geopolitical struggles of foreigners and they do not really feel bad about that as they have merged it with their country’s Identity. But it is my hope that some observers note that Filipinos are very welcoming people despite the sad reality. IT REALLY JUST BOTHERS THEM when they are the ones being named and pointed out as a rhetorical cover when sabres are being rattled by the big guys.All they hope is that they can go about their lives to work hard provide for their loved ones and pray that if there is a conflict, the damage won’t be as bad as world war 2 and the winner won’t extend its stay again in The Philippines.

        By the way, If there is any doubt about Arroyo’s weak legitimacy as a ruler in regards to the Filipinos -Please take note that one of the interesting facts about the Philippines’ Democratic politics is that they tend to vote based on personality rather than political stance and Principles of the Pretentious politicians. Judging by Arroyo’s looks and personality, I think you will get my point.

        See you around my friend.

        Like

        Posted by jefferson santos | December 3, 2013, 2:02 am
      • Mr. Jefferson Santos,

        Do not speak on behalf of all Filipinos. I myself am a Filipino and your personal views are not aligned with mine, my family’s, and my friends’.

        >> All the Filipino people were opposed but are forced to be silent while the big eastern and western powers maintained positive relations with Arroyo.

        Your comment above is simply careless. It is simply not true. There were different views, different opinions.

        Me and my family prefer joint exploration.

        The death of Hung Shih-cheng, the loss of livelihood of several fishermen, and the enmity between the general public of China and of the Philippines are simply not worth the oil and whatever resources are supposed to be among those disputed boundaries.

        It would mostly be just politicians and businessmen who would be greedy enough to fight for full ownership of all those money and oil using expensive warships and guns.

        A friend of mine from Palawan narrated to me how often they encountered fishermen of other nationalities and everybody was at peace back then. The fishermen were simply sharing the resources then. Lacking in master and doctorate degrees, as poor as they are, they simply knew how to share.

        >> “…she sold the country’s integrity”, “…sign a grossly unfair joint exploration deal with Beijing”, “…after she plunders the money”, “…clean up the mess Arroyo left behind”, etc.

        These statements are so biased.

        Never claim again to speak on behalf of Filipinos.

        Like

        Posted by Janice Subida | January 15, 2014, 12:39 am
  7. mY DEAR FELLOW FILIPINOS, now is the time for us as the bonafide citizenry of our country–the sovereign FILIPINO PEOPLE TO ORGANIZE A COUNTRYWIDE RALLY-VOICING OUT OUR THIRST FOR CHANGE……WE ARE THE BOSS—THOSE WHO ARE IN THE GOVERNMENT ARE OUR EMPLOYEES-OUR SERVANTS….MAY i SUGGEST TO REQUEST OUR SITTING PRESIDENT TO HAVCE AN OPEN FORUM TO US—MY IDEA IS TO ORGANIZE A GROUP OF LEARNED-GOD-FEARING, HONEST-AND PATRIOTIC FILIPINOS TO BE A TEMPORARY REPLACEMENT FOR ALL THE GOVERNMENT FUNCTIONS THESE GRP OF PEOPLE MUST BE YOUNG AND VIGOROUS SO THAT THEY CAN ACTIVELY DO WHATEVER TASK THEY OUGHT TO DO AS FAR AS PUBLIC-GOVERNANCE IS CONCERN …..THE SENATE AND CONGRESS IN PARTICULAR SHOULD BE PUT INTO AN HALT FOR THE MEAN TIME WHILE WE ARE IN THE PROCESS OF SEARCHING OUR CHOSEN CANDIDATE TO ACT AS TEMPORARY SBSTITUTE……THE 2 BRANCHES OF GOVT…MUST BE PUT ON HOLD FOR THE MEAN TIME -THE REASON BEING IS VERY -CLEAR-AS CLEAR AS THE SUNSHINE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY…THEY ARE NO LONGER WORTHY AS PERFORMER OF THEIR DUTY—IN FACT, THEY DO THE OPPOSITE…..ON THE OTHER,HAND, AS OUR CHOSEN TEMPORARY SUBSTITE IN THE GOVT. ARE ALREADY DOING THEIR ASSIGNED TASK—THE CLEAN -UN-BIASED INVESTIGATION TO ALL SUSPICIOUS CROOKS IN THE GOV’T, MUJST BE THOROUGHLY INVESTIGATED BY THE GROUP OF AUTHORITIES WE WILL CHOOSE….THE SPPEEDY AND WITHOUT SHENANIGANS INVESTIGATION MUST BE DONE—WE SHOULD MINIMISED THE LEGAL TECHNICLITIES WHICH NORMALLY CAUSE THE DELAY OF THE LEGAL PROCEEDINGS—WE, THE SOVEREIGN FILIPINO PEOPLE -IF I MAY SUGGEST TO ADD AND CHANGE SOMETHING IN OUR CONSTITUTION— THE PROVISSION OF THE LAW ON “CAPITAL PUNISHMENT-“DEATH” MUST BE ADDED IN OUR CONSTITUTION OR NATIONAL LAW—THE GOVERNMENT CROOKS MUST FACE THE PENALTY OF DEATH IF THE AMOUNT INVOLVE START WITH THE 10-MILLIONS OF PESOS AND ABOVE….BELOW THIS AMOUNT IS IMPRISONMENT FOR SEVERAL YEARS…..FOR INSTANCE,.DEATH SHOULD BE IMNPLEMENTED ON THE FF…DRUG TRAFFICKING, DRUG MANUFACTURING, HEINOUS CRIMES…AND ANY UNLAWFUL CORRUPT PRACTICES ETC…..THE PROVISION OF FAIR AND EQUAL TRADING—-LET ALL FILIPINO BUSINESS ENTREPRENEUR BE EQUALLY BENEFITTED FROM THE INCOME OF THEIR BUSINESSES—-FAIR TRADING NO MONOPOLIZATION BY ANY BUSINESS .ENTITY.NO- OVER–PRICING AND NO UNDER-PRICING…..THE CHINESE-FILIPINO BUSINES MEN IN PARTICULAR MUST BE AWARE OF THIS LAW…..ALL MUST BE LAWFULLY BE PROTECTED….AAL PUBLIC SERVANT ARE ACOUNTABLE INTO PUBLIC SCRUTINY…ANOTHER IS THE PROVISION OF ”FREEDOM OF INFORMATION”……THE GOVT. FINANCIAL ACTIVITIES MUST BE CRYSTAL CLEAR IN THE PUBLIC EYE…NGAYON NA PO ANG TAMANG PANAHON PARA TAYO AY MAKIALAM—GUSTO KO RIN PONG IDAGDAG NA KUNG PWEDE AY MA-EXTEND ANG PANUNUNGKULAN NG ATING KADALUKUYANG PANGULO—PARA MAISAGA3WA NATIN ANG GANAP NA PAGBABAGO……..KAILANGAN PO AY MAKUMPISKA O MABAWI NATIN ANG MGA PERANG NINAKAW NG MGA NAGDAAN AT KASALUKUYANG NANUNUNGKULAN SA PAMPUBLIKONG SERBISYO NA WALANG KABUSUGN SA PAGNANAKAW—-DAIG PA NILA ANG BUWAYA–ANG BUWAYA ,KPG BUSOB NA AY NAGPAPAHINGA NA NG MATAGAL–PERO ANG MGA MAGNANAKAW SA HALOS LAHAT NG SANGAY NG PAMAHALAAN AY WALANG KASPAGURAN AT KABUSUGAN SA PAGNANAKAW SA KABAN NG BAYAN…KAYA NGAYON…LALO TAYONG NABABAONB SA HIRAP—-NAKALUPASAY ANG SANDATAHANG LAKAS NG BAYAN DSAHILSDA MGA MAGNANAKAWNA NAKAYUNIPORME AT NAKA SIBILYAN……ANG MGA TAONG NEGOSYANTE NA MAY KAUGNAYAN SA MGA NINAKAW NA PERA NG BAYAN AY DAPAT MAIMBESTIGAHAN NG MABUTI–ANG MGA NAISARANG KASO NG NAGDAANG REHIMEN AY DPAT MABUKSAN MULI AT MABUSISI- TULAD NG KASO NI LUCIO TAN, GENERAL GARCIA, MANUEL VILLAR ETC..

    Like

    Posted by edwin claveria | January 12, 2014, 10:50 pm
  8. CONT: THERE SHOULD BE A CONSTITUTIONAL PROVISION IN THE ELIGIBILITY OF POLITICAL CANDIDATE AS MIRIAM DEFENSOR SAID…..HE OR SHE SHOULD BE A COLLEGE GRADUATE- AND WITH CLEAN GOOD MORAL CHARACTER, STRONG-DICIPLINED AND PATRIOTIC AND ABOVE ALL—GOD FEARING….

    Like

    Posted by edwin claveria | January 12, 2014, 10:56 pm

Trackbacks/Pingbacks

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